The paper “Intersecting Paths: Strategic Autonomy, Enlargement“, explores the evolution of a more strategic European Union (EU), with a particular focus on how this shift is understood and perceived both within key EU member states and in the Western Balkan countries. The objective is to help to better understand the differing national perspectives on what strategic EU action entails, particularly in the context of key EU member states such as France, Italy, Poland, and Germany, the latter being highlighted as especially influential in regard to the EU enlargement process.
This analysis takes on heightened urgency in the context of external geopolitical pressures, particularly the potential implications of Donald Trump’s reelection as President of the United States. A second Trump administration could fundamentally alter the transatlantic relationship, with risks ranging from a diminished U.S. commitment to European security to a swift U.S.-Russia agreement to end the war in Ukraine, undermining European and Ukrainian interests. Concurrently, Trump’s hard-line stance on China could escalate U.S.-China trade tensions, leaving Europe vulnerable to economic and strategic disruptions. While the EU previously demonstrated its ability to counter Trump’s trade policies, its foreign and security mechanisms remain ill-suited to manage such challenges. These dynamics underline the necessity of enhancing EU strategic autonomy to safeguard its interests in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
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Intersecting Paths: Strategic Autonomy, Enlargement